The prisoner's dilemma is a fundamental problem in game theory that demonstrates why two people might not cooperate even if it is in both their best interests to do so. The Bombay Stock Exchange and the National Stock Exchange have been playing a game of one-upmanship and this seems to me a classic case of prisoner’s dilemma.
Background: BSE is an association of brokers started more than 125 years back. NSE was established in 1995 with an objective to provide transparency and fair trading platform. Since then, these two leading exchanges have been engaged in a game to outdo each other. We have seen launch of new products (derivatives, indices etc.) and BSE turning itself into a corporate entity (management and ownership are separate). When in October 2009, SEBI allowed exchanges to extend trading hours, BSE fired the first salvo. It advanced trading hours by 10 minutes to 9:45am under the pretext that the time will allow BSE to focus on the launch of its mid month derivatives contract. NSE wasted no time and advanced the time by 55 minutes to 9am to which BSE immediately responded. The transition time was one day but the brouhaha by interested and related parties caused these exchanges to roll back the extension till January 4, 2010.
There is an ongoing debate between brokers, banks, exchanges, market participants and regulators and it provides hope to many people that eventually the roll back will be permanent. The operational problems (e.g. banks are not open before 10AM and brokers will find it difficult to assign margin to investors) and work-life balance (even after close of trading at 3.30pm, the involved staff spends 3-4 hours doing activities like broking, broadcasting, research and end of day activities) is reason enough to stick to the current time (why fix when it ain’t broken).
The dilemma will come to play impacting our lives. As each player tries to maximize market share and their payoffs, they would betray each other even if co-cooperativeness is in theirs and in society’s best interest.
Markets will open at 9AM and may be extended till 5PM. See banks opening at 9AM. Hats off to Mr. Nash.
Saturday, December 26, 2009
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
Gold Economy
Have you ever wondered why the gold prices, at their all time highs, are still rising? Perhaps some people have a clue.
Last November, in a majestic, colonial style corner office in Fort, Mumbai, I met a visionary and an infectious investment officer of a large investment company. His whole office set-up, with large pillars of books and sheaths of notes reminded me of ‘John Nash’ as in the movie - ‘A Beautiful Mind’. The company runs on Berkshire Hathway model and we discussed at length the apparent reasons for the collapse of the Global Economy. Of course the reasons came out to be relative inadequacy of the valuation models to model out scenarios of liquidity squeeze or any similar real-time event; the models on which the entire spreadsheet generation and the Wall Street relied upon.
The person explained the fall-out. The current situation is worse than the 1930s recession. During the 1930s, the countries tried to reduce ‘balance of payments’ deficit by devaluing their currency (this caused increased competitiveness through cheaper exports). This was fine from a country’s perspective as a short-time panacea; however, it eventually resulted in decrease in demand, decrease in national incomes and high unemployment. This also resulted in lesser foreign investment and reduced international flow of capital.
During the lasting part of the World War II, in order to build and regulate an international monetary order, an obligation was reached among ‘Allied’ nations to maintain the exchange rate of their currency within a fixed value—plus or minus one percent—in terms of gold and the ability of the International Monetary Fund (IMF – formed at that time) to bridge temporary imbalances of payments. In the face of increasing financial strain, the system collapsed in 1971, after the US unilaterally terminated convertibility of the dollars to gold. This action caused considerable financial stress in the world economy and created the unique situation whereby the US dollar became the ‘reserve currency’ for the states which had signed the agreement. (Source – Wikipedia)
What Lies Ahead. With its ‘War on Terrorism’ and ‘Stimulus Packages’, the US will run fiscal deficit for years to come. The Corporate failures mean that the trust on American Philosophy of Business is fast depleting and US Inc may struggle for investments. Where is this money then going to come from? Will China be able to buy up the treasury bonds? Perhaps No, the excesses have been far too much and failures span globally. The people will increasingly realize that US Dollar is a far weaker currency. What more, they will realize that even the EUR or the Yuan is no stronger (due to their own economic situation and corporate performance). The failure of currency markets is imminent, more because of lack of trust rather than lack of value. Gold will again be accepted as a universal mode of exchange. India, because of its infatuation to Gold will be the first country to come out of this very dangerous situation.
So, when is this going to happen? The person said 3-4 years. I have been pessimist of the world economy since June last year (visit my previous blogs), but this takes the evaluation to an entirely new level of pessimism. We met for half an hour or so but the impact was everlasting. I have promised to meet him when the world moves to Gold Standard. I hope I never meet him.
Last November, in a majestic, colonial style corner office in Fort, Mumbai, I met a visionary and an infectious investment officer of a large investment company. His whole office set-up, with large pillars of books and sheaths of notes reminded me of ‘John Nash’ as in the movie - ‘A Beautiful Mind’. The company runs on Berkshire Hathway model and we discussed at length the apparent reasons for the collapse of the Global Economy. Of course the reasons came out to be relative inadequacy of the valuation models to model out scenarios of liquidity squeeze or any similar real-time event; the models on which the entire spreadsheet generation and the Wall Street relied upon.
The person explained the fall-out. The current situation is worse than the 1930s recession. During the 1930s, the countries tried to reduce ‘balance of payments’ deficit by devaluing their currency (this caused increased competitiveness through cheaper exports). This was fine from a country’s perspective as a short-time panacea; however, it eventually resulted in decrease in demand, decrease in national incomes and high unemployment. This also resulted in lesser foreign investment and reduced international flow of capital.
During the lasting part of the World War II, in order to build and regulate an international monetary order, an obligation was reached among ‘Allied’ nations to maintain the exchange rate of their currency within a fixed value—plus or minus one percent—in terms of gold and the ability of the International Monetary Fund (IMF – formed at that time) to bridge temporary imbalances of payments. In the face of increasing financial strain, the system collapsed in 1971, after the US unilaterally terminated convertibility of the dollars to gold. This action caused considerable financial stress in the world economy and created the unique situation whereby the US dollar became the ‘reserve currency’ for the states which had signed the agreement. (Source – Wikipedia)
What Lies Ahead. With its ‘War on Terrorism’ and ‘Stimulus Packages’, the US will run fiscal deficit for years to come. The Corporate failures mean that the trust on American Philosophy of Business is fast depleting and US Inc may struggle for investments. Where is this money then going to come from? Will China be able to buy up the treasury bonds? Perhaps No, the excesses have been far too much and failures span globally. The people will increasingly realize that US Dollar is a far weaker currency. What more, they will realize that even the EUR or the Yuan is no stronger (due to their own economic situation and corporate performance). The failure of currency markets is imminent, more because of lack of trust rather than lack of value. Gold will again be accepted as a universal mode of exchange. India, because of its infatuation to Gold will be the first country to come out of this very dangerous situation.
So, when is this going to happen? The person said 3-4 years. I have been pessimist of the world economy since June last year (visit my previous blogs), but this takes the evaluation to an entirely new level of pessimism. We met for half an hour or so but the impact was everlasting. I have promised to meet him when the world moves to Gold Standard. I hope I never meet him.
Sunday, February 1, 2009
Federer - Now more far from greatness
A resplendent ‘Camel’ geometry box complete with a ‘divider’, a ‘compass’ and all sorts of HB pencils was the 1st Prize a person used to get in the New Green Fields School, where I studied from Class II to Class VI. I never managed to get that elusive geometry box. I had to be content with color pencils, awarded to the second position holder. I kept on accumulating these pencils over the years. I fought a losing battle against an invariable 1st ranker for a couple of years and then gave in. It was because, rather than trusting my abilities, I began trusting the 1st ranker’s ability to overwhelm me.
I understand what it’s to be ‘second’; that too often; more so against the same competitor. On-stage break-down of Federer, who seldom displays his emotions, reflects what Nadal has done to his arch rival. Federer is mentally disintegrated and psyched out. His outburst reflects his nightmare of time and again facing and losing to Nadal during his continual chase towards 14th and record equaling Grand Slam title.
Federer is giving in. 22 years old Rafa with 6 Grand Slam title will close in and who knows will be the greatest player ever; provided the hunger lingers on and he keeps himself away from injuries.
I feel that after this match Federer is all the more far from greatness than he ever was. The King of Clay, Nadal, will hardly give a chance to Federer in French Open. Wimbledon may be the only hope as its Federer’s favorite surface - I am doubtful though. Let’s see how Champion Federer copes up with more distant tryst with greatness; for greatness is achieved and not begged; neither gifted.
P.S. – Nadal displayed a great sense of honor for his rival; not only in words but in action. His proprietary ‘bite’ on the trophy was missing; an irksome pose for Federer’ fans and to Federer himself.
I understand what it’s to be ‘second’; that too often; more so against the same competitor. On-stage break-down of Federer, who seldom displays his emotions, reflects what Nadal has done to his arch rival. Federer is mentally disintegrated and psyched out. His outburst reflects his nightmare of time and again facing and losing to Nadal during his continual chase towards 14th and record equaling Grand Slam title.
Federer is giving in. 22 years old Rafa with 6 Grand Slam title will close in and who knows will be the greatest player ever; provided the hunger lingers on and he keeps himself away from injuries.
I feel that after this match Federer is all the more far from greatness than he ever was. The King of Clay, Nadal, will hardly give a chance to Federer in French Open. Wimbledon may be the only hope as its Federer’s favorite surface - I am doubtful though. Let’s see how Champion Federer copes up with more distant tryst with greatness; for greatness is achieved and not begged; neither gifted.
P.S. – Nadal displayed a great sense of honor for his rival; not only in words but in action. His proprietary ‘bite’ on the trophy was missing; an irksome pose for Federer’ fans and to Federer himself.
Saturday, January 31, 2009
My Bet is on Nadal
Hey - It's again a Federer Nadal Final and tennis can not get better than this in the open era. The much anticipated final takes place this Sunday and I am sure Rod Laver Arena is expecting a far greater spectacle than the Nadal Verdasco match.
Federer will try to achieve Sampras' feat of 14 grandslam title and my heart will cheer for him to lift the trophy for the fourth time. However, my bet is on Nadal as his confidence will be sky-high after winning an evenly contested five setter; longest match in the history of the tournament. Nadal has time and again displayed that extra instinct that comes into play when he plays Federer.
Good Luck Federer - Less Fed Error this time please
Federer will try to achieve Sampras' feat of 14 grandslam title and my heart will cheer for him to lift the trophy for the fourth time. However, my bet is on Nadal as his confidence will be sky-high after winning an evenly contested five setter; longest match in the history of the tournament. Nadal has time and again displayed that extra instinct that comes into play when he plays Federer.
Good Luck Federer - Less Fed Error this time please
Tuesday, January 27, 2009
India Sri Lanka Series Prediction
My guess is that India will loose this series 2-3. Why? Anybody's guess...
- India is out of match practice
- Harbhajan is not playing and
- Menids Factor still needs to be sorted.
Let's see. Last prediction of India winning series against Australia 2-1 went in the right direction; only the margin was bit better.
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