Saturday, December 26, 2009

Prisoner’s Dilemma: Stock Exchanges will open at 9AM

The prisoner's dilemma is a fundamental problem in game theory that demonstrates why two people might not cooperate even if it is in both their best interests to do so. The Bombay Stock Exchange and the National Stock Exchange have been playing a game of one-upmanship and this seems to me a classic case of prisoner’s dilemma.
Background: BSE is an association of brokers started more than 125 years back. NSE was established in 1995 with an objective to provide transparency and fair trading platform. Since then, these two leading exchanges have been engaged in a game to outdo each other. We have seen launch of new products (derivatives, indices etc.) and BSE turning itself into a corporate entity (management and ownership are separate). When in October 2009, SEBI allowed exchanges to extend trading hours, BSE fired the first salvo. It advanced trading hours by 10 minutes to 9:45am under the pretext that the time will allow BSE to focus on the launch of its mid month derivatives contract. NSE wasted no time and advanced the time by 55 minutes to 9am to which BSE immediately responded. The transition time was one day but the brouhaha by interested and related parties caused these exchanges to roll back the extension till January 4, 2010.
There is an ongoing debate between brokers, banks, exchanges, market participants and regulators and it provides hope to many people that eventually the roll back will be permanent. The operational problems (e.g. banks are not open before 10AM and brokers will find it difficult to assign margin to investors) and work-life balance (even after close of trading at 3.30pm, the involved staff spends 3-4 hours doing activities like broking, broadcasting, research and end of day activities) is reason enough to stick to the current time (why fix when it ain’t broken).
The dilemma will come to play impacting our lives. As each player tries to maximize market share and their payoffs, they would betray each other even if co-cooperativeness is in theirs and in society’s best interest.
Markets will open at 9AM and may be extended till 5PM. See banks opening at 9AM. Hats off to Mr. Nash.